Is the Aggregate IGR of the Five SE States Less than that of Ogun State?

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The Claim

Recently, while addressing the regional calls for restructuring Nigeria, a twitter handle – @adeyanjideji – claimed that “IGR of the whole of SE is not up to that of Ogun”.

The Facts

Our review relies on the said states’ Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) figures from an official source – National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). According to the Bureau’s Statistics Calendar found at http://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/information/calendar, IGR information is published once a year. The latest statistics are published under the heading – Full Year 2016 States Disaggregated Internally Generated Revenue and can be found here.  

The NBS report is 47 pages long, however the relevant facts are on page 40. Please note that the latest available figures published in the report are for full year 2016. A review is shown in the following table:

 

*Notes:

  • Anambra State’s 2016 IGR numbers were not provided in the NBS report
  • Scenario 1 shows Anambra’s actual IGR numbers from 2015 as 2016
  • Scenario 2 shows Anambra’s IGR numbers from 2015 with a growth of 24.85% (This is the state’s Compound Annual Growth Rate from 2012 to 2015).
  • Scenario 3 shows Anambra’s IGR numbers from 2015 with a growth of 41.50% (This is the state’s year-on-year growth rate from 2014 to 2015).

 

Total IGR reported by NBS for the 5 South Eastern states in 2016 amounted to N35.14bn which is less than Ogun State’s reported IGR of N72.98bn for the same period. However, the total of N38.14bn does not include Anambra State’s IGR for the period.

Thus, the available data is incomplete and cannot be a correct and accurate basis for comparison of the internally generated revenue from the South East (SE) region and Ogun State.

However, if one could assume that Anambra state’s IGR would remain at the 2015 level of N14.79bn, total IGR for the 5 SE states becomes N49.94bn, which is less than Ogun State’s IGR for 2016.

Alternatively, if one could assume that Anambra state’s IGR would grow at the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 24.85%, same as the CAGR recorded by the state from 2012 to 2015, total IGR for the 5 SE states becomes N53.61bn, which is less than Ogun State’s IGR for 2016.

Or, if one could assume that Anambra state’s IGR would grow at the state’s 2015/2014 year-on-year growth rate of 41.50%, total IGR for the 5 SE states becomes N56.08bn, which is less than Ogun State’s IGR for 2016.

 

Conclusion  

Therefore, @adeyanjideji claim that the “IGR of the whole of SE is not up to that of Ogun” is valid.

[Caveat: When Anambra’s official 2016 IGR figures are eventually released, if the State’s IGR is at least N37.84bn, then we will be able to revisit this, and conclude that Ogun State’s IGR is less than that of the 5 SE states.]


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